I was holding 712.5 Narcissus open this weekend and as usual, I take my Market Trends report with me so that during the quiet moments of the Open House I can look them over and see what’s going on with the Trends. I was a little surprised at what I saw.
I think I’m just as vulnerable to the media’s negativity as everyone else which is why I have to retreat to the numbers to get perspective. I will post these charts & graphs under the Corona del Mar Section so that you can see what I am referring to.
All of these graphs are for ALL of Corona del Mar. (This includes the Village, Cameo Shores, Cameo Highlands, Corona Highlands, Shorecliff, Jasmine Park, Jasmine Creek, Harbor View 1 & 2, Broadmoor, Original, Robertson, Irvine Terrace, the various condominium buildings & Spyglass.)
Graph 1: This is our “Market Activity Index” Chart and the beauty of this chart is the slider at the bottom that scales the market from SELLERS through BUYERS Market with a neutral market in between. The number you see shows how many months of inventory there is, for example, this first chart which includes SFR and condo’s in every price range shows that we have 7.9 months of inventory. That means if no new homes came on the market, it would take 7.9 months at the current rate of sales (which is an average of 18 per month) to deplete the inventory. Which is why it shows a healthy buyers market. (The blue slider.)
Then I decided to break it into “buyer price ranges”.
Graph 2: Lets start with properties under a million bucks. There are currently 19 of them in Corona del Mar. On average, 2 sell per month which gives us 8.2 months of inventory. If you are a buyer, Merry Christmas because Santa is coming to save you alot of money! It’s time to negotiate a deal that you will be happy to tell your friends and family about when they lay into you for buying in a buyers market! (The only other price range that is more of a buyers market in Corona del Mar is $2,500,000 plus! I will get into more detail in those price ranges when we get to those charts because the number of sales are actually higher than 2004 levels.)
Graph 3: $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 This is the chart that made me go “What the H E double hockey stix…” Strangely enough, there are also 19 properties available in this price range but an average of 5 sell per month. This makes for only 3.9 months of inventory.
The current amount of inventory is 42% lower than this time last year. In fact, in 2004 there were 26 properties on the market at this time and we have had the same number of CLOSED transactions in this price range this year. Inventory spiked to a high of 46 properties in August of 06 and has been steadily declining ever since.
If you are buying in this range, this should set some of your fear aside. This range is quite strong with the average rate of sales maintaining itself. If you are a seller, don’t take this to mean that you can jack your price sky high. You are still one of 19 properties available with 5 that will sell in a given month. Priced in alignment with the market, you will sell. Our blue slider is clearly in a neutral market slightly skewed to the seller’s advantage.
If you are buying in this range, you have a choice, buy now while the market is neutral, or risk waiting it out when inventory historically has declined from January through early summer. Most likely, you will have less to choose from because 5 a month will be gone.
Opportunity may be waning in this price point if you are looking to buy!
Graph 4: $1,500,000 - $1,999,999 This price point has also seen a strong decline in inventory throughout 2007 leaving us hovering just above 2004 levels. We are also averaging 5 CLOSED transactions per month. We had a 33% increase in sales in 2007 compared to 2006.
Our little blue slider has moved away from the far right in this price point as well!
Graph 5: $2,000,000 - $2,499,999 We see the same distinct decline in inventory as in the previous two graphs. Sales remain strong.
Again, our little blue slider is making it’s way from the far right.
Graph 6: $2,500,000 - $2,999,999 Inventory levels hit a 3 year low in February. Overall, inventory in this price point has remained stable for the past three years. Sales were strong from February through August when we had an influx of new listings and sales trailed off.
Our little blue slider is slammed to the right in this price point. I would encourage anyone I know who is buying in this range to start choosing their new home.
Graph 7: $3,000,000 - $3,999,999 This price range differs from the one just below in that we had an inventory explosion combined with sales that are higher for 2006 & 2007. Although our slider is in the same place, more homes are moving in recent years than before.
WOW, Really RICH people have been buying during the buyer’s market. How odd???
Graph 8: $4,000,000 - $ the most expensive home This range follows the one before, only sales are UP even more! (More REALLY RICH people buying during a buyer’s market…)
No one has a crystal ball, but the numbers are the numbers. If you must sell, it can happen in this market. If you want to buy, you will only know where the bottom is when it is too late for you.
Based on the data, it looks like we could be in the bottom of the curve for our neighborhood.
Cheers and Happy Holidays!
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