Which are you?

Everyone wonders when the market will hit bottom.  How will you know?  The sheep will wait until the newspapers tell them it’s ok to buy, while the shepherds will make a decision based on factual data and have a solid investment when the sheep buy en masse.  This is the real estate cycle…  

It is the Buyer’s Market portion of that cycle that we are in right now,  but based on recent data, that may not be the case by as early as the 2nd quarter of this new year.  The earliest signal that the bottom is near would be large decreases in inventory with moderate gains in price.  Let’s see what the data says for Corona del Mar.

 Here is a brief overview of the current market in CdM.   (These numbers are for Corona del Mar & span from 4/1/2004 - 12/31/2007.)

$0 - $999,999

Inventory is down 57% from it’s peak in June 2007.  There are 16 properties available.  Since 2004, the price per square foot has been gradually increasing.  From August - November of 2004, the average price per square foot was $468.  The same time period of 2007 has an average price per square foot of $695 or a 33% increase.   

$1,000,000 - $1,449,999

Inventory is down 53% from it’s peak in August of 2006 when there were 34 homes on the market.  It has been steadily declining ever since with 16 properties currently available.  In 2004, price per square foot ranged from $565 to $838.  In 2007, prices ranged from $636 - $1005.  A slow but steady increase in value.

$1,450,000 - $1,899,999

Inventory has declined by 56% since a peak in May of 2006 when 55 homes were on the market.  There are currently 24.  Inventory levels are comparable to 2005 levels and actually lower than most months in 2004.  Price per square foot averages ranged from $599 - $881 in 2004 while during 2007 that range was $781 - $1,116. 

$1,900,000 - $2,199,999

Inventory increased 12.5% since the same time last year when 14 homes were on the market.  There are currently 16 available.  Priced per square foot averages increased from $531 - $813 in 2004 while 2007 ranged from $872 - $1,061.

$2,200,000 - $2,699,999

Inventory is down 36% since it’s peak of 25 properties in September 2004.  There are currently 16 available.  Price per square foot in 2004 ranged from $976 - $1,663 and 2007 ranged from $673 - $1,745. 

$2,700,000 - $3,199,999

Inventory is down 44% from a peak of 25 properties in August of 2007.  There are currently 14 homes on the market.  In 2004 the average price per square foot was $1,056 while 2007 has an average price of $1,152.

And the story keeps repeating itself in the higher price ranges as well.  (If you would like to see the data for yourself, comment or email me and I will send it to you as a PDF.)

If prices are not dropping dramatically and are mostly on a slow and steady increase, what will happen when the sheep arrive?   Will prices continue to go up or will they go down?

 Which one are you?